The Impacts of External Forces

 

In the early 2000s, Apple and Google did not dominate the mobile telephone market, but rather a company called Research in Motion (RIM) producing a mobile device for both phone and email, the Blackberry. The technology was a massive breakthrough for the email-obsessed culture at that time. RIM developed push email, which enabled users to receive messages on their Blackberry device rather than constantly fetching new messages. The device featured a full-functioning keyboard, mimicking the standard desktop version, enabling users to produce messages as opposed to the numeric-only keypad quickly. Blackberry’s popularity exploded, and the corporation developed an aggressive marketing plan targeted at the corporate mobile market (Gustin, 2013).

Unfortunately for Blackberry, several forces eventually led to the organization’s downfall. First, there was a cultural force; while the organization targeted the corporate market, competitors such as Apple and Google were laser-focused on the consumer market. The push email technology was not proprietary to RIM, and the competition included it as a native piece of software (Appolonia, 2019). Secondly, as Apple and Google had established products in the consumer space with music devices and next generation cellular telephones, there was a significant technological force. The foundational device seamlessly integrated with email. Lastly, there was a social force at work, as the mobile device was on the brink of becoming an enabler for various media types, including telephone, camera, music, email, and the emerging social media market (Weber et al., 2011).

The topic for my sociotechnical plan is the emerging digital workplace, which has drastically changed due to an environmental force, COVID-19. As organizations continue to adjust to support the remote worker, some advantages have surfaced (Attaran et al., 2019). First, remote employees do not need to be in the physical location of the corporate campus. The flexibility enables a broader and more diverse workforce located across the country or even the world. Second, by enabling a remote workforce, organizations are forecasting cost savings in space costs. Lastly, the digital workplace enables a level of agility for an organization. For example, rather than arranging cross-country business trips, collaboration is enabled remotely, providing a more efficient experience and realized cost savings (PNNL Researchers Confront COVID-19 Challenges, 2021).

The correlation between the Blackberry example and the digital workplace relies on two significant forces that require a sociotechnical plan. First, cultural forces affect both situations. The Blackberry strategic plan failed to account for the consumer market and the factors driving it. For the digital workplace, the end-user experience, whether corporate or consumer, is key to success. The end-user must feel engaged, collaborative, and part of a team while participating remotely (Attaran et al., 2019). Secondly, the technological force is a significant driver in both examples. RIM was unable to keep pace with user needs, the experience, and future innovation. The digital workplace also has technical challenges to address, such as the hybrid experience, where part of a team is on campus, and others are remote. The audio and visual experience must improve, with strategic plans for integrating new tools and repurposing existing ones (Attaran et al., 2019).

References

Appolonia, A. (2019). How BlackBerry went from controlling the smartphone market to a phone of the past. Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/blackberry-smartphone-rise-fall-mobile-failure-innovate-2019-11 

Attaran, M., Attaran, S., & Kirkland, D. (2019). The need for digital workplace: increasing workforce productivity in the information age. International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems (IJEIS), 15(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.4018/IJEIS.2019010101 

Gustin, S. (2013). The Fatal Mistake that Doomed Blackberry. Time Magazine. https://business.time.com/2013/09/24/the-fatal-mistake-that-doomed-blackberry/ 

PNNL Researchers Confront COVID-19 Challenges. (2021). https://www.pnnl.gov/covid 

Weber, A., Haas, M., & Scuka, D. (2011). Mobile service innovation: A European failure. Telecommunications Policy, 35(5), 469-480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2011.03.002

 

 

Serendipity is a common type of innovation where discovery or invention occurs unexpectedly. There are dozens of serendipity innovations, including famous discoveries such as the microwave oven, ice cream cones, champagne, the post-it note, potato chips, the slinky, and superglue. One of the most significant inventions from serendipity is penicillin. As the story goes, in 1928, Dr. Alexander Fleming, a bacteriologist, returned to his laboratory after a vacation to notice a mold, Penicillium notatum had contaminated a petri dish and stopped the growth of staphylococci. After some time reproducing the mold, Dr. Fleming confirmed the finding that penicillin limits bacteria growth and is reproducible, paving the way for disease treatment. Dr. Fleming and his partners developing penicillin into an antibiotic were awarded the Nobel prize in 1945 (Markel, 2013).

Innovation due to error occurs when there is an attempt to produce a specific product, resulting from a mistake, and entirely new artifact surfaces. Serendipity and error are often confused with each other but have a distinct difference. Serendipity occurs because of typical research, for example, where trial and error might yield a discovery. Error is precisely that, the product of a mistake. An example of an invention through error is the pacemaker. In 1956, Wilson Greatbatch, a professor at the University of Buffalo, developed a device to tape heart tones. He mistakenly used the wrong radio, and instead of detecting tones, the device produced an electrical vibration, which perfectly paralleled that of the human heart. If Dr. Greatbatch had not made the error of choosing the wrong device, the pacemaker would not have come to fruition (Williamson, 2011).

Exaptation is the act of leveraging an invention in a new or different way producing a new artifact. In Individual Project #2 available on my blog, I discussed how researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington, repurposed the Millimeter-Wave Body Scanner, used widely in airport terminals for the detection of plastic explosives, for the fashion industry. In the retail space, the body scanner can provide exact measurements for custom-fit apparel. Another example is the military vehicle, the Stryker, used by the United States Army. The Stryker was originally an interim vehicle intended to function as a temporary option until the Future Combat Systems program produced a superior product. However, the Army repurposed the vehicle where it is now a core component of its mobile warfare fleet (Goure, 2018).

References

Goure, D. (2018). Modernization with a repurpose: Sometimes it's better to upgrade than replace. Assocation of the United States Army. https://www.ausa.org/articles/modernization-repurpose-sometimes-it%E2%80%99s-better-upgrade-replace 

Markel, D. H. (2013). The real story behind penicillin. PBS News Hour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/the-real-story-behind-the-worlds-first-antibiotic 

Williamson, M. (2011). Wilson Greatbatch: Inventor of the implantable cardiac pacemaker. Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/wilson-greatbatch-inventor-implantable-cardiac-pacemaker-2363206.html

 

Scenario Planning for Future Innovation

 

Scenario planning is a strategic development method for considering different situations that might happen in the future due to transformational forces. The method enables flexibility so that organizations have deliberate options for adapting and embracing anticipated change. Scenario planning helps consider situations where little to no historical data exists, driving an organization to consider various forces and circumstances that could impact future business. Scenario planning includes developing multiple scenarios instead of converging on a single solution to maximize possible options. Each scenario considers forces from various transformational drivers such as competition, the marketplace, products, staff members, and stakeholders (Wade, 2012).

Driving Innovation for Change

When change occurs unexpectedly, or a company is unprepared, the transformation can significantly damage or end an organization. Modern corporations that include scenario planning as a core business process prepare themselves for change and are in a position to drive transformation through innovation. The practice includes a different mental model, where the organization considers hypothetical outcomes and devises a strategy for transformation if the prediction comes to fruition. The intent of scenario planning is not to predict the future but rather consider possibilities and options for responses. The practice forces organizations to consider new possibilities, and in many circumstances, yields new processes, methods, products, and even new market spaces due to strategic analysis leading to innovation (Wade, 2012).

An example of an organization that maximizes the value of scenario planning is technology giant Amazon. The success of the corporate mega-power resides in the strategic plan and innovativeness to change the landscape of electronic commerce. Amazon did not create a market, new product line, or even disrupt a single market leader, but rather influenced an entire industry. In Rao (2011), the strategy underpinning Amazon's success is a scenario planning method called "The Game Mind." The game mind method does not focus on a product, market, or sales strategy but instead develops scenarios as to which "game" to play. Amazon's success at preparing for the future is so great the organization how dominates a market (aka the "game") before it even begins. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a prime example of a scenario Amazon envisioned that others would not have contemplated. The cloud computing environment was not a core competency of the organization. However, through scenario planning and envisioning the future of e-commerce, the idea matured and elevated Amazon into an entirely new domain.

Understanding Forces

 Scenario planning involves understanding and addressing driving forces, which is a phenomenon that can potentially bring change in the future. There are different driving forces, some of which are well understood, such as a trend. Another type is a variable that is unpredictable but affects other variables, such as the cost of oil, a commodity that drives the costs of so many markets. A standard model for identifying driving forces is the PEST model, which includes forces in four primary categories, political, economic, societal, and technological (Wade, 2012). While other models and forces exist, the PEST model is core to scenario planning. Typically, a planning effort will surface dozens of forces, many of which are interrelated, creating a cause-and-effect situation. Understanding the forces and how they relate enable an organization to identify critical uncertainties. Figure 1 illustrates how plotting forces against the combination of potential impact and uncertainty creates a heatmap for visualizing impact and clusters(Wade, 2012).

Figure 1

Heat map for driving forces

Borrowed from Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future, Wade (2012)

An Opportunity for Scenario Planning

As a result of the COVIC-19 pandemic, many organizations' traditional workplace environment has drastically changed beyond what most could imagine. The future of work in the "new normal" post-pandemic world is unpredictable but certainly will be different from the past. The pace of change in the workplace is unprecedented, and the digital workplace is revolutionizing the environment where "work" is no longer somewhere to go but something to do. Developing an effective digital workplace strategy fits the definition of scenario planning. There is no historical data that provides any forecasting, the future state is unknown, and there are multiple driving forces at play (Mancl & Fraser, 2020).

The COVID-19 pandemic brought forth quarantines that impacted individuals and organizations worldwide by limiting face-to-face collaboration. The PEST model is evident, as all four forces are entirely at play when considering the future of work. The political forces impact economic forces, which have a direct influence on society. During the pandemic, technological forces are driving innovation and change not only in business but the culture of society (Mancl & Fraser, 2020; Wade, 2012).

At the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory in Richland, Washington, researchers leverage scenario planning to drive innovative methods to complete work. An example is a case where PNNL staff need to test robotics equipment with a partner from Canada. Unable to travel onsite for the complex testing, the team developed a solution using multiple cameras where the testing activity occurs remotely. Understanding the forces at play, the team met project deliverables and created cost-savings through a reduction in travel while accelerating the process. While COVID-19 created an interesting situation for the national laboratory, the organization finds better and more effective methods to accomplish work. PNNL continues to examine technological forces to improve the future digital workplace, such as office set-ups, laboratory designs, meeting space, and innovative options necessary to perform work at a national laboratory (Knopik, 2020).

References

Knopik, C. (2020). From "Remotely Possible" to "Possible Remotely". Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/remotely-possible-possible-remotely

Mancl, D., & Fraser, S. D. (2020). COVID-19's Influence on the Future of Agile. 309-316. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58858-8_32

Rao, V. (2011). Why Amazon Is The Best Strategic Player In Tech. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/venkateshrao/2011/12/14/the-amazon-playbook/?sh=397c3ef23bcb

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future.

 

 

Socio-technical Perspectives for Design

 

Henley Business School University of Reading

In Hayashi and Baranauskas (2013), the researchers investigate the impact of digital assets on student interest and the effect on the quality of the learning environment. The effort includes a qualitative research investigation to inquire about the student user experience with new technology and its effects on learning scenarios. The study population includes more than 500 individuals associated with an elementary school in Campinas, Brazil. The study results indicate that the introduction of digital assists, in this case, the XO educational laptop, can improve the learning experience by combining an institution's formal and informal practices. Most importantly, the exercises indicate that integrating technology into a learning environment is influenced by the participants' culture and values. The outcome leads to this discussion on the sociotechnical plan leveraged by the study. 

The authors define three distinct types of learning as a basis for the sociotechnical plan. First, formal learning are the educational practices that occur within the school itself. Second, informal learning is the knowledge gleaned outside of the school, within an individual's casual environments. Lastly, non-formal learning takes place outside of the school setting but with the intent for deliberate learning. These meanings help identify an opportunity for technology inclusion with less distribution. The ultimate goal is to integrate technology into learning environments without investing significant time and effort in the technology itself, but rather leverage the tools as learning aids (Hayashi & Baranauskas, 2013). 

The sociotechnical perspective focuses on the implicit inclusion of technology offerings as part of the natural learning curriculum. Since technology is unbounded by space, time, or facilitators, informal learning streams become present in formal settings. Technological devices are conduits to much more information than available in formal learning settings across various devices and delivery formats. However, a learning culture must consume technology as an asset to understand how the organization functions fully. Integrating technology into the modern formal learning environment must be purposeful and embracing, rather than viewing the assets as foreign objects (Hayashi & Baranauskas, 2013). 

A cognitive model helps influence transformative change within a system, focusing on how social and cultural impact learning and decision-making. Culture, specifically, is influential to learning as it brings together multiple dynamics of an integrated environment, including lifestyle, behavior, and perspectives. Technology is a significant driver in shaping or changing culture and form the basis for a sociotechnical plan. Cultural conventions are categorized as formal, informal, and technical, but in contrast to learning methods, the conventions operate together, with all three present in any given situation. While analysis of the individual parts is critical to understanding, the sum of the parts embodies the actual value (Hayashi & Baranauskas, 2013). 

The Semiotic Onion is a representative model of how each method contributes to the overall system. The outmost ring consists of the informal convention, where meanings, intentions, beliefs, and commitments materialize in unstructured ways (Hayashi & Baranauskas, 2013). The formal convention, a subset of the informal convention, includes legislation, governance, and authority. Lastly, the technical convention, a subset of the formal convention, provides tools and processes for automating the formal convention. The model continuously improves as the design iteratively adjusts across all three conventions. The practice of ethnography in design is common elsewhere, such as design science (Hevner & Chatterjee, 2010). 

Technology is no longer an alternative utility to executing tasks but rather a staple in today's modern culture. Technology is present everywhere, providing automation, information, and socialization within our culture. Extending technology into a learning environment requires consideration of Affectibility, which is the holistic collection of attributes that strengthen or weaken a system. The practice of measuring Affectibility serves as the feedback mechanism for system transformation (Hayashi & Baranauskas, 2013). 

The case study evaluates the effect of introducing laptop computers to each Semiotic Onion convention as it applies to the learning environment. The results include the following. 

    1)      Informal

a.       The majority of parents in the environment are unable to use the technology nor help the student

b.       Instructors are less likely to work with technology they have no mastery

    2)      Formal

a.       Availability of laptops outside of school is not consistent due to fear of loss or theft

b.       Some instructors fear integrated activities would diverge from the predetermined curriculum

    3)      Technical

a.       Obstacles include the laptops' interactiveness, lack of consistent internet connectivity, differing user experiences, and ample accessories 

The study's outcome highlights each layer's importance within the sociotechnical model, formal, informal, and technical (Scacchi, 2004). A successful transformation when introducing new technology must account for the balance between layers, the intersection points, and continuous design. Affectibililty helps evaluate progress, provides feedback, and drives change to the model. While this case study focuses on a specific environment and uses case, the contribution is much more significant, providing a basis for sociotechnical change in other environments. 

References

Hayashi, E., & Baranauskas, M. C. (2013). Affectibility in educational technologies: A sociotechnical perspective for design. Journal of Educational Technology & Society, 16(1), 57-68. http://eurydice.nied.unicamp.br/portais/ecoweb/nied/ecoweb/publicacoes/artigos-em-revistas/affectibility-in-educational-technologies-a-socio-technical-perspective-for-design.1.pdf 

Hevner, A., & Chatterjee, S. (2010). Design science research in information systems. In Design research in information systems (pp. 9-22). Springer. 

Scacchi, W. (2004). Sociotechnical design. The encyclopedia of human-computer interaction, 1, 656-659. http://www.ics.uci.edu/~wscacchi/Papers/SE-Encyc/Socio-Technical-Design.pdf

 

 

Netflix: A Roger Ebert prediction from 1987

In 1987, the beloved movie critic Roger Ebert made the prediction, "We will have high-definition, widescreen television sets and a push-button dialing system to order the movie you want at the time you want it." He compared the accessibility of movies akin to a book, that the revolution of delivery and distribution anyone in any town can see what they choose (Novak, 2011). In 1987, the ability to rent a movie on VHS tape at a brick-and-mortar storefront, such as Blockbuster Video, was in its infancy. It was not until 1997 that Netflix debuted, enabling mail delivery of videos to homes ordered via a web portal. Finally, in 2007, Netflix offered the first web streaming media service (McFadden, 2020). Today, over 200 streaming services exist for consumers to choose from (Cook, 2021). 

Multiple factors contribute to how consumers purchase the commercial video (movies, mini-series, television) today. Factors such as resolution, screen display, and commercial-free are examples of industrial and technological forces that enable video distribution. Since modern television's birth, the technology has continuously evolved, redefining itself to an exponentially more significant set of offerings. In the infancy of television, growth followed a linear progression, however over the past several decades, the opportunities for both viewing and creating content have skyrocketed (Sharma, 2016). 

The advent of streaming services to televisions in consumers’ homes has disrupted the technology's technological advances. The advancements in the display (widescreen), surround sound, high-definition video are examples of technological forces. However, the industrial forces have not been as constant but instead experiencing a more significant growth curve. The increase in cable channels, web-based delivery, and content options have driven significant impact. An example is a premium cable service; while initially an alternative for narrative storytelling, the subscription-based model quickly led to broadcasting without advertisement interruptions (Sharma, 2016). 

Blockbuster video was the market leader in video distribution in the late 1990s, with over 6,500 store locations worldwide with a market share of 27%. The competitors in the marketplace were highly fragmented. What was Netflix able to do in such a short period to completely change the entire market?  The answer is scenario planning. Netflix focused on the future of video consumers, while Blockbuster focused on the present time's activity. For example, Blockbuster charged late fees for videos not returned on time, which was a significant revenue source. Netflix identified this as a pain-point with consumers and chose not to implement them (Ciccone, 2017).

After realizing the high volume of video rentals in the consumer marketplace, Netflix offered a subscription plan with mail delivery and pre-paid return envelopes. Blockbuster was offered a partnership with Amazon, the leader in retail sales of videos at the time, but refused the partnership. In the same year, Netflix developed a personalized recommendation system that compared customer's purchasing patterns with other customers with similar profiles. In 2007, Netflix released a full-blown streaming service, and in 2011 pivoted their business model from providing videos to producing them. The first Netflix original series, House of Cards, won three primetime Emmy awards. Today, Netflix dominates the video streaming market and the television market, with more award-winning series than any other competitor. Blockbuster’s inability to plan for the future ended the corporation as all stores were permanently closed in 2013. While the company still has a small presence in the on-demand streaming market, it is an addition to Sling TV and no longer the corporate giant it once was (Ciccone, 2017).

References 

Ciccone, E. (2017). Platform ecosystem: an analysis of the business model evolution through Blockbuster and Netflix case studies. http://tesi.luiss.it/20805/1/674101_CICCONE_ELISA.pdf 

Cook, S. (2021). The Complete List of Streaming Services in 2021 – 200+ Services. Flixed. https://flixed.io/complete-list-streaming-services-2021/ 

McFadden, C. (2020). The Fascinating Hitory of Netflix. Interesting Engineering. https://interestingengineering.com/the-fascinating-history-of-netflix#:~:text=Netflix%20was%20first%20founded%20in%20August%20of%201997,opened%2C%20Netflix%20was%20purely%20a%20movie%20rental%20service 

Novak, M. (2011). Ebert's Art Film Revolution (1987). Gizmodo. https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/eberts-art-film-revolution-1987-512626033 

Sharma, R. A. (2016). The Netflix effect: Impacts of the streaming model on television storytelling. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f110/c0aaf64c08995ee31b70b975d15bb5aefdff.pdf